WNYC’s Brian Lehrer had a good discussion today on reverse “white flight,” a topic I’ve covered before on Street Sweeper here and here. As I mentioned to Lehrer on his show, I think the migration of poor and middle income people out of major metropolitan areas (MMAs) and the rush of wealthy whites back to cities is only half of the story. Here are five things to think about:
1. A distinction needs to be made between “premium” or “luxury” MMAs like NYC, LA, Chicago and San Francisco and less glamorous secondary MMAs such as Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Richmond, Providence, Detroit and Pittsburgh, which have established downtown centers that resemble the most desirable neighborhoods in luxury MMAs.
2. Luxury MMAs, especially NYC, are highly desired locations following 15 years of constant, highly-stylized publicity from popular television shows such as Seinfeld, Friends, ER, Sex & the City, Entourage, Felicity, Gossip Girl, etc. that reenforce the popular notion that luxury MMAs are youthful, glamorous and exciting places to live in.
3. Because of their high desirability, luxury MMAs have become too expensive for most people other than upper middle income people and the wealthy. Those who cannot afford the housing and other living costs of luxury MMAs will be forced to leave. Most of those who leave will be low income and lower middle income city dwellers, many of whom, though not all, will be hispanics and blacks.
4. As crime rates, infrastructure and services in luxury MMAs have improved over the last 15 years, aging wealthy empty-nest baby boomers want to return to the cities they knew as children to enjoy the conveniences and sophisticated lifestyle that luxury MMAs now offer. Increasingly, wealthy foreigners want to be in luxury MMAs as well. Most of the boomers and foreigners flocking to luxury MMAs will be white.
5. On the other end of the demographic spectrum, the mortgage crisis will displace many low and middle income American homeowners in ex-urban and suburban areas. The oil crisis also will make it prohibitively expensive for many people who accepted long commutes (30+ miles in each direction) to continue driving such distances to work. These twin crises will drive large groups of middle income Americans from ex-urban and suburban areas to rental units in secondary MMAs.
The Takeaway: Expect luxury MMAs to get more expensive, wealthier and whiter over the long term while secondary MMAs grow in response to different migratory trends. As a result, secondary MMAs will need major infrastructure, public transportation and housing investments over the next 10-20 years. Companies, seeking talented workers, will likely follow these migratory trends and move away from ex-urban/suburban corporate office parks to commercial real estate properties in secondary MMAs.
